Oil Prices Surge as Middle East Conflict Fears Grow

Global oil prices rose sharply on the first trading day of the week as US and Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by Tehran’s retaliation, raised fears of a wider and prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

International benchmark Brent crude climbed 7.5 percent to $78.48 per barrel by 9:50am local time, up from $73.01 in the previous session. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 6.8 percent to $71.79 per barrel, compared with $65.35 earlier.

US President Donald Trump said Iran’s military command structure had been “eliminated” following the attacks, adding that military operations were continuing “at full force.” In a video posted on social media, he said hundreds of targets linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were hit and nine Iranian vessels destroyed. Trump also claimed that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed, a claim not independently verified.

The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, while negotiations between Tehran and Washington were still under way. Iran later retaliated by targeting Israel and sites in regional countries hosting US bases, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain.

Iran’s Red Crescent said at least 201 people were killed and 747 injured in the bombardments. Reports also said several senior Iranian officials were among the dead.

Maritime risks added to market anxiety. The UK Maritime Trade Operations raised the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz to “critical” after confirming multiple attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman and near the UAE coast.

Unconfirmed reports said Iran’s IRGC warned ships that no vessel would be allowed to pass through the strait. While no official closure has been announced, several container ships reportedly turned back, and major shipping firms suspended transits due to security concerns.

The Strait of Hormuz, located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, carries around 15 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for about one-third of global seaborne oil exports.

Oil price gains were partly capped by a decision from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase output. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed to raise production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, citing stable economic conditions and low oil inventories. The group said output cuts could be adjusted depending on market conditions, with the next meeting set for April 5.