Despite a dismal performance in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, the world's lowest-ranked team, San Marino (ranked 210th by FIFA), still has a slim, mathematical chance of reaching tournament. This improbable opportunity stems from their unexpected success in the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League.
San Marino is currently at the bottom of World Cup European qualifying Group H, having lost all seven of their matches, with their last fixture against Romania remaining. However, their position as group winners in Nations League Group D1 before the qualifying campaign began is the key to their survival in the race for a play-off spot.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will feature 16 European teams. The 12 European qualifying group winners will advance directly to the main tournament. The play-offs will consist of the 12 group runners-up, joined by the four best-ranked Nations League group winners who fail to finish in the top two spots in their respective World Cup qualifying groups.
Currently, among the 14 Nations League group winners, only Moldova and San Marino are not yet mathematically guaranteed a play-off place, but this situation is fluid. For San Marino to secure a play-off spot through the Nations League route, at least two of the following teams Wales, Romania, Sweden, and Northern Ireland must finish in the top two of their World Cup qualifying groups. Crucially, they must do so without displacing another Nations League group winner.
This scenario puts pressure on Romania. They must secure a large victory in their final match against San Marino to improve their goal difference, especially as they face Bosnia and Herzegovina three days prior, a team they need to pass in the rankings.
While Sweden's chances of finishing in the top two of their group are mathematically slim but not completely extinguished, the performances of Wales, Northern Ireland, and Romania will ultimately determine whether San Marino can keep its dream of reaching the 2026 World Cup play-offs alive.
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