Global oil prices are heading for a significant weekly rise as military escalations between the US and Iran disrupt critical shipping lanes in the Middle East.
Despite a minor dip on Friday, Brent crude is on track for a 5% weekly gain, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is set to rise by 4%. As of Friday afternoon, Brent stood at $75.62 a barrel, with WTI at $71.44.
The Conflict and Supply Risks The price surge follows a sharp escalation on Thursday when Iranian forces attacked US military infrastructure in Gulf states. This was in retaliation for US strikes on Iran’s eastern and coastal provinces, further destabilizing a fragile ceasefire.
The most immediate impact is on global supply chains. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—which carries 20% of daily global oil and gas supplies—has come to a near-standstill. Analysts from Vanda Insights noted that a substantial "risk premium" remains in the market because there is no clear timeline for when normal shipping will resume.
Future Outlook The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Friday that these hostilities could upend previous forecasts of a significant oil surplus for the coming year. While US President Donald Trump has downplayed the likelihood of the war restarting, the market remains on edge. For now, investors draw some reassurance from the fact that Iranian energy infrastructure has not been directly targeted.
