China’s trade surplus surged to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, according to official data released Wednesday. The surge comes as Chinese manufacturers successfully pivoted to new markets, offsetting a sharp decline in shipments to the United States under President Donald Trump’s intensified tariff regime.
Total exports rose 5.5% to $3.77 trillion for the year, driven largely by high-tech electronics and a 21% jump in automobile exports—mostly electric and hybrid vehicles. While exports to the U.S. plummeted by 20%, China saw massive growth elsewhere: shipments to Africa surged 26%, Southeast Asia rose 13%, and the European Union grew by 8%.
"Exports will remain a major growth driver in 2026," said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas, noting that global demand for chips and electronics remains high.
However, the domestic picture is less robust. Imports remained flat at $2.58 trillion as a prolonged property crisis continues to dampen consumer confidence and domestic demand. While government subsidies briefly boosted local car sales, demand slowed once the incentives were scaled back.
Looking ahead to 2026, Chinese officials warned of a "severe and complex" trade environment. International bodies, including the IMF, have urged Beijing to rebalance its economy by boosting domestic spending rather than relying solely on exports, as a flood of cheap Chinese goods continues to trigger trade friction globally.
Comment
