Iran War Disrupts Fertilizer Supply, Raising Global Food Price Risks

The ongoing conflict involving Iran has significantly disrupted global fertilizer supply chains, raising concerns about food security and price increases worldwide.

At the centre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that handles about 20% of global oil and nearly one-third of fertilizer trade. Iran has sharply limited shipments through this route in response to military actions by the United States and Israel, causing delays and supply shortages.

Fertilizer production is closely tied to energy markets. The surge in natural gas prices—essential for producing nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea—has driven costs higher. Urea, a key nutrient that boosts crop yields, has been particularly affected, with around 30% of global trade disrupted.

Experts warn that the timing of the crisis is especially critical. Farmers in many regions, including Asia, Africa, Europe, and North America, are entering or already in their planting seasons. Delays in fertilizer application at this stage can reduce crop yields, even if supplies recover later.

Developing countries are the most vulnerable. Many rely heavily on fertilizer imports from Gulf countries. For instance, nations like Ethiopia depend on the region for more than 90% of their nitrogen fertilizer needs. Supply disruptions could lead to lower production, crop failures, and rising food prices.

Farmers are already feeling the pressure. In India, small-scale farmers fear they may not survive without government subsidies as fertilizer demand peaks. Similarly, African farmers report reduced usage due to higher prices, which could lower yields significantly.

While some countries are trying to stabilize supply, alternatives remain limited. China is prioritizing domestic demand, and Russia is already producing at near full capacity. Meanwhile, countries like India are increasing subsidies, but this places strain on national budgets and long-term agricultural investment.

Even after the conflict subsides, experts say fertilizer supply chains may take time to recover. Higher shipping risks and insurance costs in the Gulf region could keep prices elevated.

The crisis highlights the fragility of global food systems, which depend heavily on stable fertilizer supply and energy markets. Analysts warn that reduced fertilizer use could lead to lower crop output and, ultimately, higher food prices for consumers worldwide.