The global climate is once again facing extreme uncertainty. International weather experts are warning that an 'El Nino' weather pattern is highly likely to develop between June and August. If this occurs, the risk of surging temperatures, severe droughts, erratic rainfall, and extreme weather will increase worldwide. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued this forecast on Tuesday, June 2.
According to the WMO, there is an 80% chance of El Niño developing in the coming months, with a 90% probability of it taking full effect by November.
This pattern is developing due to abnormally warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific. The WMO warned that this will severely disrupt typical global temperature and rainfall patterns. Based on the June to August forecast, temperatures are expected to remain higher than normal across almost all parts of the world, leading to a potential cascade of natural disasters in vulnerable regions.
For South Asia, regional climate centers predict below-average monsoon rainfall. This could lead to prolonged heatwaves, strained water resources, and severe threats to agriculture and public health.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by a significant warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming alters atmospheric conditions, changing global rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns. El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years, lasting between 9 and 12 months. Its opposite phase, La Niña, brings cooler-than-average ocean temperatures.
WMO Chief Celeste Saulo urged immediate global preparation. She warned that El Nino could intensify droughts and heavy rainfall while causing severe land and ocean heatwaves. Extreme weather contrasts are a hallmark of this phenomenon.
In recent years, the impacts of El Nino, combined with human-induced global warming, have set terrifying new records. The last major El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year in recorded history. By 2024, global average temperatures spiked by approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, shattering all previous historical heat records.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the looming El Nino as a global climate warning. He cautioned that it will pour "fuel on the fire" of an already rapidly warming world.
With experts predicting a moderate to strong El Nino, the disruption of normal weather patterns seems inevitable. Key sectors such as agriculture, food security, water management, and public health are all at high risk. Therefore, proactive monitoring and early preparation are critical to mitigating the devastating impacts in the coming months.
