World Bank Raises 2026 Global Growth Forecast amid Resilience Concerns

The global economy is showing unexpected resilience despite trade disruptions, leading the World Bank to slightly raise its 2026 growth forecast. However, the lender warned on Tuesday that this growth remains too weak to effectively combat extreme poverty.

On January 13, 2026, the World Bank released its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report, revising the 2026 global growth forecast upward to 2.6% from the 2.4% projected in June 2025. The report attributes the resilience to U.S. fiscal policy while warning of widening inequality.

According to the latest Global Economic Prospects report, global output is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2026—a 0.2 percentage point increase from previous June estimates. This follows an expected 2.7% growth in 2025.

The upward revision is largely driven by stronger-than-expected performance in the United States. The World Bank predicts U.S. growth will reach 2.2% in 2026, supported by tax incentives that are expected to offset the drag from trade tariffs.

In contrast, China’s economy is expected to slow to 4.4% in 2026, down from 4.9% in 2025. While fiscal stimulus and exports to non-U.S. markets have provided some support, structural challenges continue to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy.

Despite the slight upgrades, World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill warned that the 2020s are on track to be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s.

“The global economy has become less capable of generating growth and seemingly more resilient to policy uncertainty,” Gill said. He highlighted a growing divide: while global GDP per person is 10% higher than pre-pandemic levels, a quarter of developing nations remain poorer than they were in 2019.

Euro Zone: Growth is set to slow to 0.9% in 2026 due to tariff pressures before a projected recovery to 1.2% in 2027.

Japan: Growth will likely dip to 0.8% in 2026 as the initial boost from "front-loading" exports to the U.S. fades.

Emerging Markets: Excluding China, growth in these economies is expected to remain steady at 3.7%.

The report concludes that without significant policy shifts to encourage private investment, many developing countries risk stagnation and rising joblessness.