With only three days left before the national parliamentary election, the electoral dynamics across Bogura’s seven constituencies are becoming increasingly clear. Analysts say the single most decisive factor this time is the women’s vote.
According to the latest voter list published by the Election Commission, female voters outnumber male voters in almost all constituencies of Bogura. Observers believe that whichever party secures the confidence of women voters will gain a decisive edge on election day.
BNP Determined to Defend Its Fortress Bogura has long been regarded as a stronghold of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The party leadership has made it clear that it is unwilling to concede a single seat in the district and is determined to maintain its traditional dominance.
In Bogura-6 (Sadar), BNP candidate Tarek Rahman is contesting with the party’s symbol, the Sheaf of Paddy, while Jamaat-e-Islami has nominated Md Abidur Rahman as its candidate. BNP leaders argue that voter sentiment in this constituency remains strongly tied to the legacy of late President Ziaur Rahman, whose birthplace is associated with Bogura.
In Bogura-5 (Sherpur–Dhunat), BNP candidate Golam Mohammad Siraj is facing Jamaat nominee Dabirur Rahman in a direct contest. Recent attacks on election offices in the area have added tension to an already heated race.
Jamaat Targets Three Seats Jamaat-e-Islami has expressed confidence that it can win at least three seats in Bogura. According to party policymakers, Bogura-2 (Shibganj), Bogura-3 (Dupchanchia–Adamdighi), and Bogura-4 (Nandigram–Kahaloo) are their most promising constituencies.
This optimism is rooted in historical precedent. In several parliamentary elections since independence, Jamaat candidates have been elected from these constituencies. Relying on that legacy, along with their local organizational strength and traditional vote base, the party has entered the race with high expectations.
In Bogura-2 (Shibganj), Jamaat candidate Principal Shahadatuzzaman is competing against BNP’s Mir Shahe Alam and Mahmudur Rahman Manna of Nagorik Oikya, creating a three-way contest. Jamaat believes past voting patterns could work in its favor.
In Bogura-3 (Dupchanchia–Adamdighi), Jamaat’s Nur Mohammad is attempting to build a strong challenge against BNP candidate Abdul Mohit Talukder. Jamaat leaders point to Nur Mohammad’s educational background and his positive reputation from serving as a Union Parishad chairman as key strengths.
In Bogura-4 (Nandigram–Kahaloo), Jamaat candidate Mostafa Faisal is facing BNP’s Mosharraf Hossain. Jamaat claims its longstanding organizational presence in the area could still influence the outcome.
Competing Narratives BNP leaders, however, remain dismissive of Jamaat’s prospects. They acknowledge that Jamaat’s vote share may increase but argue it will not be enough to translate into seat victories. According to BNP, traditional party loyalty, emotional attachment to Ziaur Rahman’s legacy, and last-minute voter consolidation around the Sheaf of Paddy will ultimately favor BNP.
Mohsin Ali Raju, former general secretary of Bogura Zia Parishad and bureau chief of The Daily Inqilab, said, “People of Bogura have relied on the Sheaf of Paddy in times of crisis. On the final day, votes will consolidate in one direction.”
Women Voters Hold the Balance Political analysts note that women voters this election are not solely driven by party identity. Instead, they are weighing real-life concerns such as rising prices, personal security, employment opportunities, and the future of their children. These issues are shaping voting behavior in a way that could cut across traditional loyalties.
Overall, the election in Bogura’s seven constituencies has become a three-layered contest: BNP’s fight to defend its stronghold, Jamaat’s bid to reclaim historically favorable seats, and the quiet yet decisive role of women voters.
Until polling day concludes, no party is claiming certainty. What is clear, however, is that the results from Bogura are likely to send a significant signal to national politics.
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