The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to hold its key deposit interest rate steady at two percent during its upcoming meeting on Thursday, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change. This decision comes as eurozone inflation is under control, hovering around the ECB's two-percent target, and the bloc's long-struggling economy is showing signs of improvement.
Following a year-long series of rate cuts, the ECB has maintained the two percent rate since July. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently stated the central bank is "in a good place" to respond to shifting inflation risks.
Despite the relative calm, ECB officials face headwinds, including increased borrowing costs in France due to a political crisis and lingering trade tension risks. In contrast to the ECB's expected hold, the US Federal Reserve is projected to implement its second straight rate cut amid growing concerns over its labor market.
Looking ahead, economists and some policymakers are already debating further rate cuts later this year or in 2026.
Governing council member Gediminas Simkus suggested a cut in December might be prudent to manage the risk of inflation falling too far. Other analysts suggest one or two more cuts could materialize if downside risks, such as a deepening French crisis or an adverse impact from US tariffs, fully materialize.
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