China can now launch direct missile strikes on Australia, according to an Australian research institute. The growing threat stems from China's expanding stockpile of long-range and hypersonic weapons, alongside its construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea.
A Lowy Institute report, published Sunday, identifies Chinese ships, submarines, and new medium-range ballistic missiles as the most significant military risks to Australia.
China's strike capabilities are projected to grow over the next decade, bolstered by nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles and a growing arsenal of DF-27 medium-range missiles. US military data indicates the DF-27 has a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers.
The report stresses that this assessment focuses strictly on military capabilities rather than political intent. Sam Roggeveen, director of the Lowy Institute's international security program, cautioned against both panic and complacency. He called the rapid expansion of China’s People's Liberation Army the biggest shift in Australia's security since the Soviet Union's collapse, urging informed public discussion.
Amid China's naval expansion and US-China tensions, Australia revised its military strategy three years ago to focus on defending its northern approaches. Despite this pivot, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government rarely discusses the threat of a direct mainland attack publicly.
While cyberattacks and disruptions to undersea cables and maritime trade remain primary risks, the threat of direct missile strikes is rising. The report notes that China's Dong Feng-26 (DF-26) missiles could strike northern Australia if launched from South China Sea artificial islands. Furthermore, deploying long-range bombers or missiles on nearby Pacific islands would dramatically increase these security risks.
Australia and China remain locked in a competition for influence over Pacific island nations, with Canberra actively strengthening diplomatic and security ties to counter Beijing's regional military footprint.
