Six months into the Iran war OPEC+ once the world's most powerful oil alliance has lost much of its ability to influence the market it long dominated.
The war has shut a key Middle East export route and damaged energy infrastructure in several member countries, sharply eroding OPEC+'s market share. Its statements and policy decisions now barely move oil prices.
OPEC+ accounted for about 40% of global oil output in July, down from over 48% before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran in February according to Reuters calculations based on IEA data. Part of that decline followed the UAE's exit from OPEC in May. The group's core seven producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia, now account for just a quarter of world output as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz limits their ability to adjust supply.
Since March, OPEC+ has announced six output increases, but most remained largely symbolic due to the Hormuz blockade with limited market impact except briefly in July during a short-lived U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
Instead, falling Chinese oil imports have become one of the year's biggest price drivers. Since the war began China has bought roughly 400 million fewer barrels than the same period last year, partly due to a fuel export ban, reduced refining and rising electric vehicle use.
This shift underscores China's growing role in balancing global oil markets a function once reserved almost exclusively for OPEC+. "They've become the swing demand centre" said analyst June Goh of Sparta Commodities. Where OPEC+ once controlled prices through supply decisions the market's focus has shifted to how much oil can even be produced and exported amid ongoing conflict.
