A low-pressure system over the southeastern and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal has intensified into a well-marked low-pressure area and may develop into a powerful cyclone within the next 48 hours, according to the Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
In a bulletin issued on Saturday (October 24), BWOT said the system could continue strengthening over the next three to four days. It may develop into a depression within the next six to 12 hours, deepen into a deep depression over the following 24 to 36 hours, and potentially become a full-fledged cyclone within 48 hours.
The system currently has maximum sustained winds of 35 kilometres per hour within a radius of 100 kilometres from its centre, with gusts reaching up to 45 kilometres per hour. Under its influence, the sea has gradually begun to become rough in the central Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas. Fishermen advised to remain near the coast BWOT said the weather department had not yet issued any official warning signals for Bangladesh’s seaports. However, warning signals could be issued soon as the system develops.
Fishing boats and trawlers have been advised not to venture more than 150 kilometres offshore into the deep sea. Fishermen have also been urged to remain close to the coast and operate cautiously until further instructions are issued.
According to BWOT’s forecast, the system may move generally southward and southeastward over the next 24 to 36 hours before gradually turning westward as it gains strength. It could reach its peak intensity after moving into the west-central and adjoining southwestern Bay of Bengal.
Although the system shows clear signs of developing into a powerful cyclone, its eventual intensity remains uncertain, BWOT said. Possible landfall near India's eastern coast Based on the information available so far, BWOT said there was no apparent risk of the system directly striking Bangladesh’s coast or causing major destruction there.
After developing into a cyclone, the system could cross the coast of northern Andhra Pradesh or adjoining southern Odisha in India around October 28, according to the forecast.
Although a direct hit on Bangladesh is not currently expected, the system could bring substantial rainfall to the country through its indirect effects. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is possible in parts of India as the system approaches and crosses the coast. Widespread rain possible across Bangladesh BWOT forecast that a broad rain system could become active over Bangladesh from October 27 or 28 as an indirect effect of the developing cyclone.
Significant rainfall is possible across most parts of the country from October 27–28 through November 1.
The divisions of Barishal, Khulna, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Mymensingh and Dhaka could receive comparatively heavier rainfall. Although rain is also expected in Chattogram and Sylhet divisions, the amounts there may be relatively lower, BWOT said.
The organisation cautioned that the system’s eventual strength and impacts would become clearer as it develops and further observations become available.
